New research from the University of Canterbury warns that climate change could make it harder for Kiwis to access their GP. They say that climate change must be treated as a health systems issue, not just an environmental one, to ensure communities can access vital care.
“In Christchurch alone, four coastal medical clinics are at risk of being affected by sea level rise by mid-century,” University of Canterbury (UC) PhD candidate Darcy Glenn says. “At the same time, if climate change drives more migration to New Zealand or increases patient demand through longer appointments, many practices will simply not have capacity. That could mean patients being turned away and struggling to find a new doctor.”
New Zealand faces a GP shortage. 34% of older GPs plan to retire within the next five years, so that upcoming retirements will worsen the problem. Yet many practices are already closing their books to new patients.
“There is already work being done to bring more doctors into the system, but climate change means we’ll need to go further,” Darcy says. “If we don’t account for these future pressures now, we risk being unprepared when demand spikes.”
While most climate change healthcare planning focuses on heat-related illnesses and mosquito-borne diseases, Darcy says primary healthcare access is being overlooked within the field of study. Her research models how climate-driven pressures, such as sea-level rise, population migration, and longer appointment times, could overwhelm New Zealand’s already stretched GP clinics.
The Public Health Communication Centre (PHCC) has echoed similar concerns in its latest climate and health briefing, warning that the effects of climate change are already harming New Zealanders’ health and will intensify without urgent action.
The report highlights that extreme weather events, such as floods and heatwaves, are straining healthcare systems and increasing demand for medical care, particularly among vulnerable populations.
It also notes that the health sector itself is highly exposed to these impacts, with infrastructure risks, staff shortages during emergencies, and increased pressure on primary care services.
PHCC researchers argue that protecting public health in a changing climate requires proactive adaptation of healthcare systems, from ensuring clinics are resilient to sea-level rise, to supporting GPs and health workers responding to climate-related health crises.
Darcy’s research is currently focused on Christchurch but will expand nationwide. The research uses a novel modelling approach that factors in both patient preferences (such as cost, opening hours, or distance to their GP practice) and GP capacity to reveal potential bottlenecks.
Darcy hopes the findings will serve as a “check engine light” for policymakers, helping health planners identify where more GPs are needed and enabling the prioritisation of communities in need of additional support.
She says the study “will add to a growing body of research urging governments to treat climate change as a health systems issue, not just a weather or environmental problem.”
