If you are retired, or beginning to think about your housing options for the years ahead, new research from Commercial real estate company JLL New Zealand offers some important insights into how retirement village living is likely to change over the coming decades.
The findings come from JLL’s Retirement Village Database, which tracks the number of villages, units and residents nationwide. The latest data, covering the year to December 2024, shows a sector that is growing – but not quickly enough to match future demand.
The retirement home sector has doubled in size
Since 2012, New Zealand’s retirement village sector has expanded significantly. In that time, the number of villages has increased from 343 to 491, while the total number of units has grown from 21,815 to 43,598.
That represents average growth of 1,815 units per year over the past 12 years. In 2024 alone, an estimated 1,789 new units were completed. While this is slightly higher than the 10-year average, it remains below the five-year average of 2,009 units per year.
Based on an average of 1.3 people per unit, there are now an estimated 56,677 residents living in retirement villages across New Zealand.
Retirement home demand is set to rise sharply
The most striking finding from the research is how quickly demand for retirement village living is expected to grow.
From today’s estimated 56,677 residents, numbers are expected to rise by 21,655 by 2033, reaching 78,332 residents. Looking further ahead, an additional 37,935 residents are expected by 2048.
In practical terms, this means the sector will need to provide around 60,256 units by 2033 and 89,436 units by 2048 to meet the needs of New Zealand’s growing 75-plus population.
Where the gap appears
If retirement villages continued to be developed at the average pace of the last five years at about 2,009 units per year; the industry could meet the demand for an extra 16,658 units by 2033.
However, the current development pipeline suggests that this level of construction is not planned. As a result, JLL’s analysis estimates a shortage of 11,284 units by 2033. By 2048, that shortfall could grow to 23,241 units.
In other words, while the sector is growing, it is not currently on track to keep up with the number of older New Zealanders who may be looking for retirement village living in the future.
Why timing matters
Demographic trends show that growth in the 75-plus age group is expected to peak in 2028. That means the next few years represent a critical window for the retirement village industry to respond.
For operators, this presents a clear strategic opportunity. Expanding existing villages, known as brownfield development, as well as building new villages in new locations, will be necessary if future demand is to be met.
What this means for retirees and pre-retirees
For people already retired, or those planning ahead, this research highlights the importance of thinking early about housing options. Increased demand combined with limited future supply may mean greater competition for places in retirement villages over time.
It also reinforces the value of understanding what different villages offer, where they are located and how well they align with your lifestyle and long-term needs.
While the retirement village sector in New Zealand continues to expand, the research reveals that demand is growing faster than supply. With the window for action narrowing, the decisions made by the industry now will help shape the choices available to future generations of retirees.
